Scrapping Probabilities and Committed CO2 Emissions of the International Ship Fleet

Authors: Maximilian Held, Boris Stolz, Jan Hoffmann, Gil Georges, Michele Bolla, Konstantinos Boulouchos

Abstract: Fighting climate change demands action in all sectors. International shipping faces the challenge of long lifetimes of vessels compared to other modes of transportation like cars or aircraft. Decisions on energy carriers and propulsion technologies that are made now have a long-lasting impact on the emissions of the sector. An essential part to understand how long vessels will stay in the fleet are cumulative survival probabilities, i.e. the probability with which a vessel is still in service at a specific age. However, literature and data on this topic are scarce. We fill this gap by providing cumulative survival probability curves for the international vessel fleet, resolved by vessel size and type. We illustrate how this knowledge can be used in a stock and flow model in order to project future CO2 emissions. Preliminary findings show that the shipping industry needs to ramp up efforts in providing carbon-neutral technology solutions now. Otherwise, climate targets are out of sight and more and more emissions from fossil fuel-powered vessels are locked-in

The paper was presented at the SNAME 7th International Symposium on Ship Operations, Management and Economics, Virtual, April 2021. For more information on the topic, please visit the original source.

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